The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that recent US tariffs risk cutting nearly 20% of Vietnam’s exports to America, equal to more than $25 billion annually.
Vietnam, the sixth-largest exporter to the US in 2024, shipped $136.5 billion worth of goods last year, largely from multinational firms and suppliers.
According to Philip Schellekens, UNDP Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific, “no country in Southeast Asia is more exposed to US tariff hikes than Vietnam.”
• In August, Vietnam’s exports to the US fell 2% month-on-month, with footwear – where Vietnam is the world’s second-largest supplier – down 5.5%.
• The World Bank has since lowered Vietnam’s growth forecast.
• Other Southeast Asian exporters face smaller risks: Thailand (-12.7%), Malaysia (-10.4%), and Indonesia (-6.4%).
The UNDP estimates the tariffs could shave 5% off Vietnam’s GDP. However, the long-term impact may be softened by diversification of markets, domestic demand, and exemptions on consumer electronics, which make up 28% of exports.
Source: Reuters
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