Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has warned that heavy global dependence on a single country for critical minerals poses a growing risk to energy security and could trigger geopolitical tensions as early as 2026.
In comments linked to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, Birol said market concentration is now one of the most serious vulnerabilities in the global energy system.
“It is not right to depend on one country,” Birol said. “The golden rule of energy security is diversification. You need to reduce risks by sourcing oil, natural gas, critical minerals and nuclear fuel from as many different countries as possible.”
“I think there could be serious tensions between countries over critical minerals in 2026,” he added.
Key points:
• One country controls around 70–80% of refining capacity for most strategic minerals.
• China leads refining for 19 of 20 critical minerals globally.
• Türkiye is seeking to become a top-five rare earth elements producer, led by the Beylikova site in Eskişehir.
• Global LNG markets are shifting into a buyer’s market as new supply enters by late 2025.
• Weak electricity grids are emerging as a major barrier to the renewable energy transition.
Birol said diversification, grid investment and climate cooperation — including COP31 in Türkiye in 2026 — will be central to managing energy and climate risks.
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