The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed sharply in October 2025, as tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump continued to suppress imports while exports rose.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported the deficit fell to $29.4bn, the lowest monthly level since 2009, down from $48.1bn in September.
At the same time, new data showed U.S. worker productivity accelerated strongly in the third quarter, driven by corporate investment in artificial intelligence.
Key developments:
• The effective U.S. tariff rate exceeded 16%, its highest since 1935 (Budget Lab at Yale).
• Nonfarm productivity rose 4.9% annualised in Q3, the fastest pace since 2023 (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
• Unit labour costs fell 1.9%, easing inflationary pressure.
Economists caution that trade flows remain distorted by stockpiling and tariff-avoidance strategies. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of tariffs imposed under emergency powers.
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