Nearly four years into the Russia–Ukraine war, combined military casualties could approach two million by spring 2026, according to a new study by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Key findings
• CSIS estimates Russia has suffered around 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths.
• Ukraine is assessed to have incurred close to 600,000 killed, wounded or missing.
• Casualty figures are based on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials, and data from Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service.
The Kremlin dismissed the report as “not credible”, reiterating that only the defence ministry can release official figures.
CSIS notes Russian battlefield deaths exceed Soviet losses in Afghanistan by more than 17 times. While Russian casualties are higher, Ukraine’s smaller population limits its capacity to absorb prolonged losses.
Ukraine continues to face mobilisation pressures, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy resisting calls to lower the draft age. Meanwhile, Russian territorial gains have slowed markedly, with monitoring group DeepState reporting January advances at their lowest rate since March 2025.
Recent peace talks in Abu Dhabi ended without a breakthrough.
ℹ️ The Guardian
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