Germany’s population is projected to decline by nearly 5% by 2050, a sharper contraction than previously forecast, according to research from the Ifo Institute. Updated data from Germany’s statistical office shows the population could fall to around 79 million — the lowest level since the early 1990s.
Ifo economist Joachim Ragnitz warned that accelerating population ageing will significantly impact economic growth, labour markets, healthcare, and pensions. Long-term growth is expected to remain around 0.4%.
Key developments:
• Working-age population (20–66) projected to fall by 12%, while pensioner numbers could rise by over 20%.
• Net migration in 2025 reached 225,000, below previous estimates of 454,000.
• The Federal Audit Office warned pension spending — already about 25% of the federal budget — is likely to increase.
• Birth rate forecasts were revised down, with 150,000 fewer births expected by 2030.
Eastern regions are expected to experience the steepest population decline.
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