Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, has argued that Ukraine has gained the military upper hand over Russia, rejecting what he described as the narrative that Moscow is winning the war.
Speaking to POLITICO’s The Conversation with Dasha Burns, Stubb said Ukraine has intensified pressure on Russian forces through long-range drone and missile strikes while targeting strategic infrastructure inside Russia.
He claimed “Ukraine is in a better place” militarily, citing Russian battlefield losses, attacks on military and energy targets, and what he described as a “one to eight” battlefield casualty ratio favouring Ukraine. He also said Ukrainian strikes have “incapacitated about 40% of the oil refineries in Russia”, adding that Kyiv is likely to maintain military pressure.
Addressing the wider strategic picture, Stubb argued Russia has failed to achieve its original objectives of preventing Ukraine’s closer integration with Europe, stopping Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, and discouraging higher European defence spending. He said, “We have to stop driving this narrative that Russia is on top. It’s not. This is going to be a strategic failure for Russia.”
Despite his assessment, Stubb said the conflict should ultimately conclude through negotiations, stating that it remains necessary to “get back to the table, end the war, and find a new relationship with Russia.”
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